It Ain’t Over Yet
By Albert B. Kelly
I don’t know about you, but I keep walking around waiting
for the other shoe to drop with this pandemic. What I mean to say is that right
now, while it feels like we’re in a slightly better place as far as the public
health crisis, it may well be just a strange sort of calm before the backside
of the storm. Maybe we are in a slightly better place or maybe it just feels
that way because of the Covid landscape in other parts of the country right
now.
I want to be optimistic and I desperately want everyone to
be alright whether it pertains to their health, employment situation,
well-being of family, mental and emotional health, or whatever. But that
optimism only goes so far. Even as I write this, as a country we have had over
3.3 million people infected with SARS-CoV-2, which is the actual virus, while
COVID-19 the disease has claimed the lives of over 137,000 Americans. Just as HIV
is the virus that can lead to AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome), so it
is that SARS-CoV-2 can lead to COVID-19.
As far as New Jersey, we seem to be in a lull. In recent
weeks, Florida, Texas, and California have all surpassed us in terms of the
number of people testing positive. Illinois, Arizona, and Georgia are gaining
on us. If you drill down a little further into the numbers, the trends in other
parts of the country are not good.
According to globalepidemics.org, the seven day moving
average of daily new cases per 100,000 people in Arizona is 49.6, Florida 42.3,
Louisiana 32.2, South Carolina 30.4, Texas 26.8, Georgia 26.7, and Alabama
26.4. That means the risk level is extremely high in these places. By
comparison, right now in New Jersey our seven day moving average of daily new
cases per 100,000 people is 3.1
Closer to home as we move through the month of July, the
seven day moving average of daily new cases per 100,000 people in Cumberland
County is 3.9, while in Cape May, Atlantic, Gloucester, and Salem counties the
seven day moving averages are 1.6, 4.2, 4.3, and 7.3 respectively. If you look at a map of the United States
with the 7-day moving averages and risk levels by county, you will see a swath
of red across the south and into the southwest, with a few spots toward the
northwest.
These were some of the very same places that didn’t take the
pandemic all that seriously back in March and April. Many of these locations
did little by way of prohibiting larger gatherings, closing nonessential
businesses, requiring masks or social distancing, and other measures designed
to slow or limit the spread of the virus. These locations certainly did not use
the time to prepare for what they’re now experiencing and that is unfortunate.
I point this out for no other reason than to say that right
now, we’re in a place where we can catch our breath for a moment. What we can’t
afford to do is to get lazy or complacent. We’re not done with the pandemic and
it’s not done with us. Try as we might, we can’t go back to the way things were
before the pandemic hit- at least not yet.
A vaccine will come as will a better understanding of this
virus and how it impacts the body. I have no doubt that new medications and
protocols will be developed to render this virus less lethal. But we’re not
there yet and what we need to do for one another is to stay vigilant and hold
the line in order to buy enough time so that science and medicine can catch up
and do what it does best.
As we move through summer and into the fall, if we are to
keep our numbers low, which is to say if we are to keep our friends, neighbors,
family members, and our selves healthy and alive, we’ll need to continue to
wear masks, social distance, wash hands, and be as thoughtful and deliberate in
our actions over the next few months as we tried to be over the previous few. That
doesn’t mean we need to be as tense and as stressed out as we were, just
diligent. We certainly know more now and we know these measures work and save
lives. Back then, we weren’t so sure and that’s no small thing.