Hurricane Season
By Albert B. Kelly
For those of us who may have missed it, June 1st
marked the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. According to National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 2018 could be an above-average
year with 10-16 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes. That
said, Colorado State University differed slightly in their predictions with 14
named storms, 6 hurricanes, and perhaps 2 major hurricanes.
A generation ago, we here in South Jersey might have
received this news with nothing more than a yawn and some may feel that way
going into this hurricane season, but as Bob Dylan once said; “the times they
are a-changin”. What I mean to say is that the possibility of a major hurricane
coming up the coast to our neck of the woods seems a lot more likely these days
and what’s even more troubling is that the severity of these storms is growing
worse.
In a piece by Bob Berwyn for Inside Climate News, analysis
of the hurricanes that have happened since 1980 shows that the number of storms
with winds above 124 mph (category 3) has actually doubled while the number of
hurricanes with winds of 155 mph (category 5) has tripled. Because of these
changes in frequency and severity, the piece goes on to cite Penn State climate
scientist Michael Mann who thinks we need to add a “category 6” to the scale as
way to factor in stronger storms. Maybe he’s right.
The reason, according to the scientists, that we should fasten
our seat belts and be ready is because the areas of the ocean where these storms
build their strength, due to warmer ocean temps, are now to be found more
northward toward the poles- meaning toward us. That potentially puts us in the
bullseye with greater frequency for hurricanes riding up the coast.
The other fear, aside from strong winds, is what happened
with Hurricane Harvey last year in and around Houston. If I recall correctly,
the storm itself was not unusually destructive in terms of wind speed, but the darn
thing stalled out and just sat that there for days dumping enormous amounts of
rain and causing unbelievable flooding.
As we begin the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, we do so
knowing that ocean temps from south to north have warmed, which fuels stronger
storms growing them into monsters and we do so knowing that the jet stream has
changed which means that we are vulnerable in ways we weren’t a couple of decades
ago- hinted at by the deluge of rain we had a couple of weekends ago. So are we
ready?
The first thing to consider is an emergency supply kit and
this should be something that can be used whether we “shelter in place” or
evacuate. This kit or “go bag”, should include basic such things as
medications, flashlights, nonperishable food, can opener, bottled water, change
of clothes, battery operated radio, batteries, cash, and waterproof storage of
some type for vital documents to name a few. Where children are involved it might
mean formula or diapers and with pets it would mean extra food and water.
Beyond just drinking water, there’s “flushing” water.
To plan in more detail, I would strongly encourage everyone
to visit https://www.ready.gov/build-a-kit
because it has detailed information on preparedness in a whole range of areas.
For example, when considering senior citizens, beyond daily medications, you
have to consider things like oxygen, walkers, wheelchairs, and other equipment
or supplies that may be part of a senior citizen’s daily existence. The same
would be the case for someone with a disability.
Beyond individuals and families, businesses need to have
their own plans whether that includes emergency supplies at their respective facilities
and places of business, a communications plan so that managers can communicate
with employees, or plans for shutting down certain pieces of equipment,
machinery, or entire systems in a safe and timely manner.
My point is that now is the time, while we’re not facing an
imminent storm barreling up the coast, to think about what we’ll do and to make
our plans and preparations accordingly. Once the weather people start talking
storm tracks and storm surge, it gets that much harder.
Here in Bridgeton, I’ll be reviewing plans with our
emergency management people as to what facilities would serve as shelters in
the event evacuations are needed (i.e., Buckshutem School, Bridgeton High
School, etc.) and what supplies might be available- all the while hoping we never need them.