Inside Our Numbers
By Albert B. Kelly
With everything going on these days, wildfires out west, Covid-19 and trying to adjust to the new normal on this side of the pandemic, and watching us depart the mess in Afghanistan, you might not have had time to think about the 2020 census. The census was just one of those things we did every 10 years, but then it got complicated and took on a life of its own as has happened with many other previously straight forward things.
But for all of that, the count did go forward and we’re starting to get a look at our numbers. Given some of the fear and rhetoric that surrounded the 2020 census, in addition to the pandemic, I imagine that we need to allow for a wider margin of error. This is unfortunate because so much, whether safety net programs such as housing, food, and medicine or less well-known programs like highways, tuition aid and assistance for rural communities is linked to what we learn from the census.
In terms Black and Latinx populations, there are a couple of considerations to keep in mind. The first is that these populations may well have been undercounted. It may be another 2 years before the Census Bureau sifts the numbers enough to make their adjustments. But even with a possible undercount of historically undercounted populations, it’s hard to miss that our country is becoming more diverse. Just how diverse might remain fuzzy for a while as many simply did not check a box for race.
According to various reviews and projections on the 2020 census, on Census Day which is April 1st, our country grew by just 7.4 percent which represents the slowest growth rate we’ve seen since the 1930’s. That same rate is roughly the rate of growth locally in my community of Bridgeton which came in at 27,263 on Census Day. Millville came in at 27,491 and Vineland came in at 60,780 and these figures represent only negligible changes.
In addition to our Hispanic population increasing from 43.6% in 2010 to 49.4 in 2020, Bridgeton is getting younger with 29.6% of our residents under the age of 18. This stands in contrast to the overall national trend which shows the percentage of U.S. residents ages 65 and older is increasing at the fastest pace in our history according to Population Reference Bureau (PBR). The question will be how to divide resources.
Supports for our young families are needed locally as we’re battling a poverty rate of 31.2% and median household income of $37,804 as compared to the county median of $54,149. We have our work cut out for us in terms of raising incomes and the standard of living as the only way to get that done is by expanding the number of jobs available in the area which is tough in a changing economy where increasing amounts of retail is done online.
Expanding out slightly, Cumberland County lost population and depending on which numbers you work with, that percentage ranges from 2% to 4.5%. This seems to be the trend in terms of counties. According to the Population Reference Bureau, more than half of U.S. counties have experienced net population loss since the last census in 2010, with more than 550 counties losing at least 5 percent of their residents.
The big issue for those who pay attention is in apportionment which is basically who will be gaining seats in the House of Representatives and who will be losing seats. Initial numbers by the Census Bureau show that New Jersey will stay the same, but California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia will all lose 1 seat.
As far as which states will gain seats, Texas will get 2 seats while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon will all gain one seat. In case someone forgot their social studies, who gains and who loses matters because the number of electoral votes a state gets is based on its representation in Congress. States get an electoral vote for each of their two senators and for each of its House seats. We’ll have to see how it all impacts future elections.
The next two years will be about digesting our numbers and gaining a better understanding of where we are, where we’ve been and where we’re going. This will include our needs, our aspirations, and or tendencies- all 331,449,281 of us and that’s no small thing.