A Failure of Imagination
By Albert B. Kelly
In the aftermath of 9/11, there was a lot of scrutiny on the
FBI, CIA, NSA, etc. questioning why no one saw the attack coming, or at least
this method beforehand. It was easy to do in hindsight- everything from
security checkpoints to guys taking lessons in Florida.
In the post mortem, they called it a “failure of
imagination”. What they meant is that basically no one connected the dots beforehand
because they simply did not think such an attack- ramming airplanes into iconic
buildings- was something the terrorists would do. They just didn’t imagine it.
Today, as the new administration settles into the seats of
power in our nation’s capital, I think “failure of imagination” may be sort of
the resting position for this current group of leaders.
What that failure looks like is a mindset that assumes we should
cut all aid for overseas programs, including health-related programs, from the
National Institutes of Health (NIA), the United Nations and more specifically
the World Health Organization (WHO) and closer the home, cuts to the Centers
for Disease Control (CDC).
It’s a failure of imagination because we, the world of
nations, are interconnected in ways that were unknown a couple of generations
ago. We live in a just-in-time-delivery system where the products and supplies
we use in our daily lives are shipped from points around the globe to our local
stores. For that alone, we need the rest of the world to be healthy.
More to the point, a person infected with Zika, SARS (severe
acute respiratory syndrome), MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) or whatever
ailment is floating around, can hop on a plane in Hong Kong and land at Newark
International in a matter of hours all the while infecting hundreds.
So investing in these organizations and programs is critical
to the health and well-being of our communities even though these programs
focus on individuals and families half a world away.
If the NIH and WHO are properly funded, the vaccines and
other preventative measures will lessen the chances of a pandemic coming into
this country.
For those who believe we can protect ourselves by closing
our borders to other countries, it’s simply not feasible in our interconnected world. Until I came across it in Deadliest Enemy a book by Michael
Osterholm and Mark Olshaker, I had no idea how many medicines are manufactured
overseas.
A list of “must-have” drugs includes insulin for diabetes,
nitroglycerine, the blood thinner heparin for dialysis, Lasix for heart
patients, metoprolol for chest pain and high blood pressure, albuterol for
breathing problems, and a slew of antibiotics. These all come from overseas.
That means that if a global pandemic from SARS or some type
of influenza were to cripple the “just-in-time” supply chain, many people who
depend daily on these critical medications would be in serious trouble. We
simply do not have a stockpile of these drugs for such a crisis.
As I said, it’s not just about medications. The global
supply chain is responsible for a staggering amount of the goods we use in our
everyday lives from auto parts and food to clothing and machinery.
So these budget cuts to the very organizations focused on
public health in other countries makes us extremely vulnerable here at home. We
want these organizations to be researching vaccines to stave off the next flu
pandemic. More than that, we want these organizations to prevent outbreaks in
other countries so we’re not dealing with an outbreak here.
In 1918, there were 1.8 billion people in the world. The “Spanish”
flu pandemic that year caused between 50 to 100 million deaths- or roughly 3%
to 6% of the world’s population at the time. Today, there are roughly 7.4
billion worldwide and as quickly as we move around the globe, it won’t take
much.
We might be comforted with the idea that we have vaccines
today that didn’t exist in 1918. That’s true, but each year they have to make a
guess as to which strain of flu will dominate.
Some years they guess wrong and the vaccine does little. But
even when they guess right, it takes 6-9 months to make the vaccine and there
won’t be enough to go around. We need more funding, not less.
Whatever being a global leader means, it should include more
funding for the very organizations on the frontlines of the next global
pandemic- anything less is just a failure of imagination.